Can New Zealand upset the apple-cart?

So, with New Zealand embarking on a tour to Srilanka to play test matches, and onedayers I thought of writing an article on how the New Zealand team may fare in Srilanka.

New Zealand in recent times

To start with New Zealand have a young side as they look to rebuild their side. In recent times NZ have lost most of their senior players for variety of reasons like a few players retired from playing cricket. The prime examples being their inspirational captain Fleming, who was also a fine batsman in his own right. Macmillan, Astle, Richardson etc can also be added to the list. A few of them made themselves non available for selection by playing in the unsanctioned ICL league like Bond, Vincent and Tuffey though with ICL gone players like Tuffey have come back into the fold, and their pace spearhead Bond has made a come back to the one day side. Hamish Marshall made himself non available for selection by playing as a kolpak in CC.

So, NZ are looking to rebuild the side though the revolving door policy with regards to selection like they would occasionally pick Sinclair then he would be dropped with say Fulton coming in the side, and again some other player would come in his place hasn't helped their cause. It has also wreaked the careers of players like Sinclair, Fulton etc. Yet another good example would be during the tour of Australia Redmond was picked, but was soon dropped from the side. Redmond had his problems in England as he didn't come forward, but in Australia especially at Adelaide he showed that he was strong on the back foot, and looked ok only to be dropped after making 86 at Adelaide!

All the examples show that NZ'S selectors are inconsistent, and have a revolving door policy.

So coming back to the tour of Lanka it would be tough tour for the NZ team as they have to first counter the hot and humid conditions in Srilanka, which is tough for any foreign team to adjust to, and of course the threat of both Murali and Mendis.

Murali has always been a major threat to opposition teams, but Mendis can be a threat too. Pakistan's batsmen played him well, but he would be a different proposition against the inexperienced NZ'S batsmen!

So, let us have a look at the NZ side

Openers

Guptill, McINTOSH, Cumming

Of the 3 openers it looks like Guptill and McINTOSH would play.

Andy Moles has stressed upon Guptill and McINTOSH to occupy the crease, and look to bat out as many overs as possible, which may really backfire as someone like Guptill is essentially a strokemaker, and he should look to play his natural game.

Guptill has a habit of going hard at the ball, and that may not be the right way to play on the slower wickets of Lanka as one has play late, and look to find the gaps, but him playing a game, which is not natural to him may really back fire.

I haven't see McINTOSH play, but he seems to be ahead in the pecking order at the moment though with NZ'S revolving door policy one can't predict about him being in the side for long, but with Cummming as the reserve opener, who to be frank isn't test math standard I would say McINTOSH should be given a decent run in the side.

Middle order

Taylor, Ryder, Oram, Elliot and Flynn.

I do expect Taylor and Ryder to bat at 3 and 4.

Ross Taylor has become one of their mainstays of the batting. I have a feeling though he has to take more responsibility as a batsman. He has the talent, but has the tendency to throw his wicket away, which a team like NZ don't need. Taylor also has the habit of playing too much on the onside, which against M and M maybe risky. Murali would surely go around the wicket, and bowl doosra to him, and it won't be easy to blindly blast Murali on the on side. Taylor is another player, who has the habit of going hard at the ball, which may land him in trouble on the slower tracks of Lanka.

Ryder has a history disciplinary problems, but he has some talent. At his best he is a clean striker of the ball. He can succeed in Srilanka provided he looks to hit down the ground, and not try to play too many shots square off the wicket. His strength is to play square off the wicket, but on the slower wickets it can be risky. He should take Tresco's approach to his batting. Tresco in 2001 waited for the ball, and tried to play in the V against Murali and co. and succeeded. Ryder can do well in Lanka provided he shows discipline in his batting.

I do expect Flynn to play at 5 or 6. Andy Moles has occasionally tried him at 3, which again is another mistake he has done as Flynn plays better lower down the order, and has the knack of playing well with lower order batsmen. At his best he is a tenacious player, and he may do ok in Lanka as he has got what it takes to succeed in tough conditions, but he shouldn't play at 3!

Oram would likely take up the allrounder slot though he has been in wretched form in recent times, and against the spinners he can look all over the place too. I would prefer Elliot as he plays late, and has improved as a batsman in recent times as he has become a lot more aggressive as a player. The factor I would consider while choosing the allrounder would be Elliot's ability to play late when compared to other NZ'S batsmen, and it may come in handy on the slower wickets of Lanka against M and M. NZ'S management though would likely pick Oram because of his reputation, and he is the better bowler of the two.

McCULLUM, who is now a senior member of the side should play as a wicketkeeper batsman. In recent times he has been reluctant to keep wickets, but if he doesn't take the job of wicketkeeping it would seriously affect the balance of the side as they would be one batsmen short and NZ, who don't exactly have a good batting line up would end up struggling even more.

McCullum as a batsman would as usual play his aggressive game. It may not be the best way to go about on the tracks of Lanka, but I doubt whether he can play in any other way.

Bowlers

Vettori, Patel, Martin, Tuffey, O'Brien( Vettori can surely be considered as a allrounder though)


Vettori, who as we know is the captain of the side has done an admirable job till now especially when one consider the resources at his disposal. As a bowler he is not a big spinner of the ball, but he is a canny left arm spinner as he varies his pace well, and unlike Panesar has a good arm ball. Of course he has improved as a batsman as he has bailed NZ out of trouble on many a occasion.

Patel would be his spin bowling partner. He can be effective with his off spin on a turning track like Galle, but Lankan wickets demand a spin bowler to be very consistent as on slow wickets one can't even think of dragging it short.

Among the seamers I expect Tuffey to succeed in Srilanka though I see he is not playing in the first class match that is going on at the moment. It can be another mistake that Moles would do as Tuffey is bit like the taller version of Kulasekara.

On Lankan wickets unless a seamer is exceptional the bowlers, who would likely succeed are those bowling at about 80- 82 miles per hour, and consistently hit the good length spot to take advantage of the bit of movement one gets to see on Srilankan tracks and Tuffey is good at daoing that.

Skiddier bowlers on those wickets are easier to hit as they come onto the bat easily, and Lankan batsmen are always masters at using the pace, and finding the gaps.

O'Brien is a consistent seamer, who has a good slower ball. He surely can use that slower ball against the likes of Dilshan, Jayawardene, S'weera etc as they all like to stay on the back foot, especially it can be used against Dilshan as he is mainly a back foot player. It can be used as a surprise weapon to bring the Lankan batsmen forward.

Martin is another consistent seamer though he seems to have lost a yard of pace, and has the habit of bowling short. He can be ok on Lankan wickets as he is consistent, but I feel whatever Martin does Tuffey would do better in Lanka.

So let us look at keys to New Zealand's success in Lanka

Adjust to the conditions- The conditions in Lanka is always an obstacle for the opposition as it would be hot and humid, and NZ'S inexperienced players may find it really tough to adjust to it, but they have no other choice, but to adjust as much a they can to the conditions in Lanka.

The threat of M and M- Murali is always a threat in Lanka, but Mendis too can cause damage against NZ'S batsmen as their batsmen are inexperienced, and it takes time to pick Mendis's variations. NZ'S players also have a habit of going hard at the ball, which may not help them against Mendis and Murali. All their batsmen have to wait for the ball, and can look to pick both M and M off the pitch as the wickets are slow it is easier to pick both spinners off the pitch.

NZ also can't underestimate bowlers like Kulasekara, Tushara and the left arm spinner Herath as they all had success against Pakistan. To keep it short NZ'S players have to wait for the ball, and look to find gaps instead of trying to muscle it to the boundary on the Lankan wickets.

Look out for Sangakkara- Srilankan captain Sangakara has been consistent over the years. He can defend well, and when the situation demands can attack. He doesn't seem to have any real weakness, but I believe someone like Tuffey who is consistent can bowl to him as he does make the batsmen play, and occasionally Sanga early in his innings looks slightly vulnerable against spinners so, Vettori can bowl from the other end. S'weera, Jayawardene and Dilshan are all good, but Sanga is their main player.


NZ should look to break the opening partnership - As it would make sure the strong middle order would play against the new ball. Lanka have Pavitrana and Warnapura as their openers, but against Pakistan they struggled a bit so, that is a key area NZ can look to exploit.

Finally it would be a daunting task for the New Zealand team to defeat Lanka as playing against Lanka in their own backyard in hot and humid conditions is really tough, but if NZ are smart with their tactics they may have a slim chance of upsetting the apple-cart.

Anyhow I always like to root for the underdogs so, this time around I would be supporting New Zealand!